Tag Archives: flu season

To Flu Vaccine, or Not Flu Vaccine – 2018 Edition

Toronto Naturopathic Doctor

The flu vaccine is “released” annually in October, and with it, begins our season of answering the question: “Should I get the flu vaccine?”.

As naturopathic doctors, prescribing the flu vaccine, or advising against it lies outside out scope of practice.

We can however help you to make an informed decision by helping you understand what the most current research demonstrates with regards to flu vaccination decision factors.

We wrote a blog post on this a couple off years ago, but the research has been updated with the findings of more recent flu seasons, and here’s the what we know about the usefulness of the flu vaccine to date, and other relevant statistics, to date.

Statistically, your risk of contracting the flu is approximately 0.06% (but likely higher).

There are 23’000 laboratory confirmed cases of flu in Canada yearly1. The actual number of flu cases is likely higher, as many who contact the flu seek healthcare.

Assuming there are 36.95 million people in Canada, that’s simple math.

In the opinion of researchers, the flu vaccine isn’t particularly effective, but you be the judge.

These numbers are the most recent I could find, were from Cochrane’s 2018 February review of flu vaccine research.

Cochrane is a highly-respected organization that conducts research reviews (essentially gathering all the research available on a topic, removing biased or poor-quality studies, and using sophisticated mathematical tools to distil all the research findings into a “final word”).

According to the Cochrane review of research, to prevent one case of flu:

  • 71 healthy adults need to be vaccinated2
  • 7 healthy children need to be vaccinated with a live attenuated vaccine3
  • 5 healthy children need to be vaccinated with an inactivated vaccine3
  • 30 older adults need to be vaccinated4

Flu vaccination reduces rates of hospitalization and absenteeism modestly.

  • Healthy adults who have received the flu vaccine are hospitalized 0.6% less often than those who have not2
  • Having the vaccine reduced missed work days by 0.042 (assuming a work day is eight hours, this works out to your working an extra 19.2 minutes each winter)

The flu vaccine may have risks that are not well understood.

We can’t make this decision for you, but are fairly comfortable advising that if you are concerned about contracting the flu, you need to do more than only flu vaccination.

Jonah Lusis, ND


  1. Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. 2018/2019 Universal Influenza Immunization Program: Health Care Provider Q & A: General information [Internet]. [Cited 2018 Nov 1]. Available at: http://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/publichealth/flu/uiip/docs/flu_uiip_HCP_QA_2018-19.pdf.

  2. Demicheli V, Jefferson T, Ferroni E, Rivetti A, Di Pietrantonj C.

    Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [Internet]. 2018 Feb 1 [cited 2018 Nov 1]. Available at: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub6/abstract.

  3. Jefferson T, Rivetti A, Di Pietrantonj C, Demicheli V.

    Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy children. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [Internet]. 2018 Feb 1 [cited 2018 Nov 1]. Available at: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub6/abstract.

  4. Demicheli V, Jefferson T, Di Pietrantonj C, Ferroni E, Thorning S, Thomas RE, Rivetti A. Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [Internet]. 2018 Feb 1 [cited 2018 Nov 1]. Available at: https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD001269.pub6/abstract.
  5. Cunningham AS. Official doubletalk hides serious problems with flu shot safety and effectiveness [Internet]. BMJ. 2018 Jan 9 [cited 2018 Nov 1]. Available at: https://www.bmj.com/content/360/bmj.k15/rapid-responses.


Posted: 2018 November 1

Musings on the Flu Vaccine

Toronto Naturopathic Doctor

So, a propos of flu season, I thought I’d opine on the flu vaccine.

As a naturopathic doctor, the expectation is likely that I’m against it, but I’m neutral to it.

What had come to my attention, and what I was thinking of commenting on, was Shoppers Drug Marts’ aggressive promotion of the flu vaccine in the new year, in spite of the fact that the CDC had already determined this years’ vaccine is poorly matched (it’s estimated to be only 14% effective in persons over 50 years of age, the group most targeted in flu vaccine advertising), and that with a two week period required to develop antibodies, a person receiving the vaccine in mid-January will not have developed flu protection until little of the flu season remains.

In the course of looking up facts and numbers to round out my griping, I stumbled across this more interesting article on flu statistics.

The article questions whether or not the flu is actually the public health threat that results in much fear-based advertising and government pronouncing, moral judgment of those choosing not to use the vaccine and billions of dollars in annual government spending.

Essentially, the article brings to our attention that the claim that 2’000 to 8’000 deaths attributed to flu annually in Canada likely over-estimates, possibly greatly, the health impact of the flu.

Flu death figures are not arrived at by counting confirmed flu cases that ended in patient death (the testing required for this is not practical, and would cost a fortune).

Estimates are arrived at by using computer models. Assumptions are created (e.g., pneumonia deaths occurring in the winter months are caused by flu), and a computer will generate a number based on the assumptions. Different assumptions generate different numbers. Prior to 2003, Health Canada used different assumptions in their models, and the models predicted 500 to 1’500 flu-related deaths annually.

So, how dangerous is the flu really? The H1N1 flu pandemic of 2009 prompted close scrutiny of flu cases, widespread laboratory testing and the implementation of a national reporting program. In other words, implementation of the ideal flu-death counting system described above. That year, the final number of deaths attributed to the flu was 428.

If 428 is a more accurate prediction of how many Canadians will die of the flu, greater than 99.999% of Canadians will survive the flu each season. Is this worth the anxiety, hostility and dollar cost it results in each year?

Addendum: I happened upon this article written by a past chief medical officer for Ontario, an infectious disease specialist, questioning the value of the flu vaccine for different reasons (hint: the best case scenario for use of this years’ flu vaccine was vaccination of 50-100 persons to prevent a single case of flu).

Jonah Lusis, ND


Posted: 2015 February 26